Betting

Schemers and Streamers for Week 4

All your weekly fantasy needs in one piece. These are our predictions for Schemers and Streamers for week 4 of the NFL Season.

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow (vs JAX)

Burrow makes the list again with a great match-up against Jacksonville. Jacksonville has been pretty bad against the pass and has given up an average of 25 points to Ryan Fitzpatrick and Ryan Tannehill.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs SEA)

This is not the Legion of Boom anymore and no one should be scared to start your players against Seattle anymore. This defense allowed some BIG numbers to Matt Ryan, Cam Newton and Dak Prescott this season. I can see Miami playing from behind most of this one.

Gardner Minshew (@ CIN)

Minshew Mania will run wild this week despite disappearing last week. The Bengals really haven’t been tested in their secondary and Minshew has thrown the ball at least 40 times in the past 2 games. I also expect Minshew to get his top WR back this week in DJ Chark.

Running Backs

Jerick McKinnon (vs PHI)

McKinnon makes the list again with a pretty decent match-up here. Last week I thought being the lead back he would get 100/1 and we were close, McKinnon put up 77/1 on 17 touches. Seems like his rib injury isn’t too serious and he will be back this week as the lead RB against Philly.

Mike Davis (vs ARI)

Two reasons I like Davis here and that’s the volume and the match-up. Davis had 21 touches last week and is getting that CMC workload and along with a pretty decent match-up and I think Davis will be just fine this week as a RB2/Flex play.

Darrell Henderson (vs NYG)

Love the match-up here and it looks as if Cam Akers will be out again. Henderson has averaged 17.5 touches over the past 2 games and has put up 241 total yards and 2 touchdowns. He is clearly the guy in the Rams backfield and will take advantage of his favorable match-up this week.

Ronald Jones (vs LAC)

Following Fournette’s breakout game last week RoJo saw 11 more snaps and out touched Fournette 15-9. Fournette is now hurt and won’t play this week, opening up the full workload for RoJo this week. The Chargers are going to travel pretty far this week to play in TB and their defense is pretty banged up. I do expect McCoy to steal some passing situations away but not enough to impact RoJo’s overall volume this week.

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson (@ HOU)

Outside of Jefferson’s breakout game last week, I like the match-up and the fact that Minnesota will probably be playing from behind most of this game. The Vikings defense has been like Swiss cheese in the secondary and much like Seattle this defense is a former shell of itself. I expect Cousins to have to throw the ball in this one to keep up and that means more targets and opportunities for Jefferson to show last week was no fluke. He also has a pretty favorable individual match-up with Vernon Hargreaves who currently gives up 12.33 yards per reception 

Tyler Boyd (vs JAX)

Over the past 2 games Tyler Boyd seems to be Joe Burrows favorite target, Boyd has seen 21 targets over the past 2 games. This week Boyd will see D.J. Hayden who has given up 11.14 yards per target and reception along with 2.97 fantasy points per target. Jacksonville’s defense has given up 6 touchdowns to opposing slot receivers this season which is where Boyd does all his work.

Randall Cobb (vs MIN)

As stated with Justin Jefferson, the Minnesota defense has been Swiss cheese in their secondary and this defense is a former shell of itself. Cobb will draw Mike Hughes in the slot. Hughes has given up 14.2 yards per reception, 11.83 yards per target and 3.02 fantasy points per target. I like Cobb to take full advantage of his individual match-up.

Keelan Cole (@ CIN)

As stated in the Minshew write up, the Bengals defense really hasn’t been tested. A huge weak spot in their secondary is their slot corner, Mackenzie Alexander. Alexander has given up 15.11 yards per reception, 11.33 yards per target and 2.39 fantasy points per target. I expect Minshew Mania to get back on track this week and Keelan Cole to a big part of that.

Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham (vs IND)

Pretty tough match-up here but I like Graham a lot more with Foles under center. Foles fed Graham the ball in the short amount of time he was under center. I’ll take my chances with a Jimmy Graham with that kind of volume.

Logan Thomas (vs BAL)

For the 3rd straight week Logan Thomas makes the list. Averaging 8 targets a game and ranking in the tops of almost every usage category I’ll keep riding Thomas. I’m waiting for Haskins to step his play up; honestly I’m waiting for Rivera to bench him for Alex Smith.

Dalton Shultz (vs CLE)

Every week Shultz will fight for targets and usage with a pretty good WR core in Cooper, Lamb and Gallup but Shultz has a very favorable match-up and he leads the Cowboys pass catchers in red zone targets so far this season.

Defenses

Denver DST vs NYJ

Chiefs DST vs NE

Seattle DST vs MIA

Washington DST vs BAL

These are our Schemers and Streamers for week 4 of the NFL season.

https://www.tacklerr.com/schemers-and-streamers-for-week-3/

If you liked our picks of Schemers and Streamers for week 4, check out week 3 with the link above!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/viewersguide10022020/nfl-week-4-game-picks-schedule-guide-fantasy-football-tips-odds-injuries-more%3fplatform=amp

Schemers and Streamers for Week 3

All your weekly fantasy needs in one piece. These are our predictions for Schemers and Streamers for week 3 of the NFL Season.

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow (@ PHI) 

Slow start for the rookie week 1 but it looks like he got things going in week 2. I’m high on Burrow going forward and for the future; timing and relationships will be built with his WRs as the season goes on.  Plus the Eagles defense is atrocious. I expect Slay to shut down Green but he has the weapons in Boyd, Ross, Higgins and Mixon/Bernard out of the backfield to take advantage of this match-up.

Mitchell Trubisky (@ ATL)

Trubisky makes the list solely because of the match-up, Atlanta is just bad. Atlanta through the air has given up on AVERAGE over 280 yards and about 2.5 touchdowns per game. Mitch will take advantage of this match-up.

Baker Mayfield (v WAS)

Like Burrow, Mayfield had a rough start to the year but got it going last week. Washington’s defense is solid up front but they are not on the back end, giving up on average almost 280 yards per game. Bake has plenty around him to produce another solid stat line.

Running Backs

Jerick McKinnon (@ NYG)

Finally healthy and in a great opportunity to dominate the touches in the backfield with Mostert and Coleman sidelined.  McKinnon has been forgotten due to his injuries but he is an extremely explosive and talented back.  I think we see the guy who the 49ers initially signed to be their lead back this Sunday, I just hope Shanahan doesn’t try and limit his touches, let McKinnon EAT!  In the two games McKinnon played in last year he averaged 2 touchdowns per game, I can definitely see him posting 100/1 on Sunday.

Josh Kelley (v CAR)

A talented running back that is surprisingly seeing on average 18.5 touches per game and in a favorable match-up. The Panthers have given up on average 127.5 yards and 3 touchdowns per game on the ground this year.

Boston Scott (v CIN) 

Obviously this is Miles Sanders backfield and he will dominate the touches but it seems like Vegas thinks there will be points scored in this game and the Eagles will keep Scott involved. I can see him getting around 10 touches in this favorable match-up against a defense that is giving up on average 5.5 yards per carry.

Wide Receivers

Mike Williams (v CAR)

Seeing almost 7 targets a game and with a favorable individual match-up I like Williams this week. Williams should see a lot of Donte Jackson who is giving up 14 yards per reception, 14 yards per target and 5.4 fantasy points per target.

KJ Hamler (vs TB)

Hamler was in for over 60% of the offensive snaps this past Sunday and saw 7 targets.  He was in for more snaps than Jeudy and saw the same amount of targets; and had 1 rushing attempt.  Hamler seemed to be very involved in his NFL debut and with Courtland Sutton done for the year I can see his usage being very consistent.

Will Fuller (@ PIT)

I honestly can’t see Fuller going a second straight game with 0 targets. Overall Pittsburgh’s defense is very good but the individual match up is there. Fuller should see a lot of Steven Nelson as long as he stays out of the slot. Nelson is currently giving up 16.5 yards per reception, 9 yards per target and 2.54 fantasy points per target. If Watson can handle the pressure and get Fuller the ball he can take advantage of his match-up.

Tight Ends

Logan Thomas (@ CLE)

Thomas makes the list again averaging 8.5 targets per game. A very athletic TE and still one of Haskins favorite targets I like Thomas this week that has given up on average 74 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game. Unfortunately I’m starting to think he’s getting terrible targets due to horrible quarterback play, let’s see if Haskins can turn it around.

Mo Alie-Cox (vs NYJ)

With Doyle out last week Cox was the clear cut number one TE option for Rivers aka Noddle Arm. Cox was in for 67% of the snaps and saw 6 targets posting a 5 catch/111 yard stat line. Doyle didn’t practice Wednesday and I haven’t seen the reports for Thursdays practice yet. If Doyle can’t go this Sunday Cox will be a great stream this week against a Jets defense that gave up 2 touchdowns to Jordan Reed last week. (Monitor Jack Doyle)

Drew Sample (@ PHI)

Who? Yeap, Drew Sample! I have no clue who he is either but when a TE gets to play against the atrocious Eagles defense it’s an automatic.  Sample gets the green light solely because the Eagles are terrible against Tight Ends.

Defenses

Colts DST vs Jets

Chargers DST vs Panthers

Browns DST vs Football Team

These are our Schemers and Streamers for week 3 of the NFL season.

https://www.tacklerr.com/schemers-and-streamers-for-week-2/

If you liked our picks of Schemers and Streamers for week 3, check out week 2 with the link above!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/sports.yahoo.com/amphtml/2020-fantasy-football-week-3-sleepers-173307113.html

NFL Pick Em: Week 1

If you are reading this you are probably in an office pool and you are wondering how to get an edge on the competition within your NFL Pick Em predictions. Well I’m here to show you a super simple system that anyone can do and use this to evaluate the risks and rewards of each team in your office pool .I’m going to break this down as simply as possible to start and then show you practical ways to use this for week 1 office pools.

So lets first address risk what is the risk when you pick one team over the other? the risk is that you pick the wrong team so the risk is basically that teams chance of winning the game. In a perfect world if a team was guaranteed a win they should be picked every time in a office pool and the opposite is also true a team that’s guaranteed to lose shouldn’t be picked at all.

I know what I said isn’t realistic at all but its just to show a point. the reward of a pick is how many people are not picking that team when they win so for example if a team was guaranteed to win but no-one except you picked them everyone else would be get a loss and you would be the only win. that is the fastest way to climb the leaderboards in your office pools.

Margins and rates of victory


Now a 100% chance of victory is never going to happen there is always chance before a game that the underdog can win. So if we have determined that a team that was guaranteed to win should always be picked 100% of the time that also means that at every range in between they should also be picked similarly. a team that has a 50% chance to win should be picked 50% of the time etc. this is where we can find mismatches where favorites are being picked to lose too often of if close games have one side being picked too favorably.


TLDR; Risk = the chance that a team will lose. Reward = The wins you accumulate while your opponents get losses.

So Using Win % the odds that a team will win – the nationwide average that a team is being picked on office pools = advantage when picking one team over the other.
now that we have the basics down let me show you the numbers for week 1.I take the odds from numberfire.com and take each team and separate them into 3 categories. Favorites, Underdogs and Close Games

I consider the close games as teams within a 40-60% win odds.

Favorites:

Vikings,Cowboys,Saints,Patriots,Chargers,Ravens,49ers,Steelers,Colts,Eagles,Bills.


Underdogs:

Jets,Washington Football Team,Jaguars,Giants,Cardinals,Browns,Bengals,Dolphins,Buccs,Rams,Packers


Close Games:

Seahawks @ Falcons Raiders @ Panthers Lions @ Bears Titans @ Broncos

Now I’m going to go in depth how the numbers that help me make my picks for each game. Lets start with the close games.

Seahawks @ Falcons 

Using Numberfires Win odds % we see that the Seahawks are the favorites to win with a 60% chance to win however the price for that is that 80.93% of people are choosing the Seahawks to win meaning that the falcons are a good play for week 1 with a 40% chance to win but they are only being picked by 19.07% of players. In close games which are within 40-60% win odds I almost always like to go where i have more potential to place near the top.so I’m picking the Falcons here.

Titans @ Broncos 

Again going thru the same process lets see who has the better reward if we are correct with our picks in a close game. The Broncos are being picked in only 23.75% of matchups even though they have a 43% chance of winning according to numberfire. the Titans have a 57% of winning but are being picked in 76.25% of games. because the Broncos have a much better reward if they win vs the titans and because it is a close game I’m picking the broncos for week 1.

Bears @ Lions  

Again lets look at the numbers to see who has the better reward if they get a win. The bears have a better reward is they win because they are being picked in 33.91% of matchups but the bears have a 47% chance of winning. so im picking the bears. the lions are being picked to win in 66.09% of matchups but have a 53% chance of winning.

Raiders @ Panthers 

Our last Close game is the raiders and panthers the Raiders are the favorites with a 60% chance if winning but the reward is much greater if the panthers win due to being picked to win in 33.62% of games but having a 40% chance of winning.


So after you are done selecting your close games lets see which favorites are actually being picked to lose more often then they should.


there is only 1 case in week one where a favorite actually have the value on their side. And that team is the Minnesota Vikings.  The Vikings have a 65% chance to win but are only being picked in 53.96% of matchups. this makes picking the packers the worst upset pick of the week your reward doesn’t outweigh the risks when choosing the packers so in every office pool I am picking the Vikings unless I know that I’m playing with a bunch of Vikings fans.

Remaining Games


So far we have chose 5 of the 15 Sunday and Monday Games. Now for the rest just to keep it simple I normally pick the favorites. because picking favorites is still the safest move even though there aren’t many rewards for picking right. but for bigger prize pools or Bigger office pools in general you will need to take more risk to get to the top of the weekly leaderboard. so here is the rankings of the best Value Upset picks other than the games I have mentioned. 1= Best Value for Upsets and Favorites
Favorites:                                                        Upsets:

1.Cowboys 66% Win odds 67.91% Picked    1.Jets 31% Win Odds 3.83% Picked

2.Saints 66% Win odds 76.03% Picked         2.Washington 33% Win Odds 5.9% Picked

3.Patriots 72% Win odds 85.58% Picked       3.Jaguars 34% Win odds 9.85% Picked

4.Chargers 61% Win odds 76.3% Picked      4.Giants 30% Win odds 9.23% Picked

5.Ravens 80% Win odds 95.4% Picked        5.Cardinals 28% Win odds 7.66% Picked

6.49ers 72% Win odds 92.34% Picked         6.Browns 20% win odds 4.6% Picked

7.Steelers 70% Win Odds 90.77 Picked       7.Bengals 39% Win odds 23.7% Picked

8.Colts 66% Win Odds 90.15% Picked         8.Dolphins 28% Win odds 14.42% Picked

9.Eagles 67% Win Odds 94.1% Picked        9.Buccaneers 34% Win odds 23.97% Picked

10.Bills 69% Win odds 96.17% Picked         10.Rams 34% Win Odds 32.09% Picked

https://www.tacklerr.com/schemers-and-streamers-for-week-1/

New York Jets 2020 Season Preview

Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Jets finished the 2019 season with a 7-9 record (3rd in the AFC East). Despite improving on their 4-12 record from 2018, Gang Green failed to make the playoffs for the ninth consecutive season. Fortunately, the Jets no longer have to deal with Tom Brady, giving them a much-needed reprieve from the G.O.A.T. Enter the 2020 season and a new beginning for Head Coach Adam Gase. Now, let’s take look at the Jets in our New York Jets 2020 season preview.

R.I.P. 2019

Bringing in free agents RB Le’ Veon Bell and LB C.J. Mosley last year set high expectations for the Jets. Undoubtedly, injuries to key players QB Sam Darnold (Mono), LB C.J. Mosley (Groin), LB Avery Williamson (ACL), TE Chris Herndon (Hamstring/Ribs), and WR Quincy Enunwa (Neck) ultimately doomed the Jets’ season. Fortunately, the Jets will look much different this season based on their offseason moves and the health of key players.

Departures

No Jets 2020 season preview would be complete without mentioning the departures:
QB Trevor Siemian, WR Robby Anderson, WR Demaryius Thomas, C Ryan Kalil, OT Kelvin Beachum, LB Brandon Copeland, CB Darryl Roberts, and CB Trumaine Johnson.

Additions

WR Breshad Perriman, C Connor McGovern, OL Greg Van Roten, QB Joe Flacco, RB Frank Gore, LB Patrick Onwuasor, OT George Fant, and CB Pierre Desir.

O-Line Upgrade

Above all, Jets fans have to love what GM Joe Douglas has done in his first official offseason with the Jets (hired June 7th, 2019 to relieve New York from Mike Maccagnan’s clutches). Douglas totally revamped the offensive line, most notably signing Connor McGovern (71.9 PFF, 10th among centers). Additionally, 30-year old veteran G Greg Van Roten (3 years for $10.5 million) and 27-year old OT George Fant (3 years for $30 million) will add much needed experience. These key additions will undoubtedly help upgrade an offensive line that averaged a league-worst 0.7 rushing yards before contact per attempt in 2019 and allowed pressure on 27.5% of their dropbacks (31st). In addition to the above signings, the Jets also drafted offensive tackle Mekhi Becton (Louisville) with the 11th overall pick. As a result, I believe the Jets have properly built this offensive line to protect QB Sam Darnold.

Proven Winners

The Jets brought in future Hall of Famer Frank Gore, who ranks third on the all-time NFL rushing list (15,347 rushing yards). Furthermore, the Jets signed former Super Bowl MVP QB Joe Flacco to offer leadership in the locker room. Douglas also signed veteran WR Breshad Perriman (36 REC, 645 YDS, 6 TDs in 2019) and former Ravens LB Patrick Onwuasor (who reunites with C.J. Mosely) to one-year deals.

New York Jets 2020 Season Preview
Hauled in 6 TDs on 36 receptions in 2019

Wide Receiver Depth

Without a doubt, one of the biggest questions heading into the 2020 season for the Jets is at the wide receiver position. With Robby Anderson now a Carolina Panther and Demaryius Thomas gone, the Jets now depend on a young group of receivers to make plays for QB Sam Darnold. The Jets were able to snag WR Denzel Mims (Baylor) in the second round of the draft. Mims has all the physical tools to dominate in the NFL (6-3, 207-pounds, 4.38-40 yard dash). Fifth-year veteran WR Jamison Crowder proved he could make plays out of the slot last year (78 REC, 833 YDS, 6 TD). Importantly, no other wide receiver on the Jets current roster, besides Crowder or the newly signed Perriman, had over 20 receptions or 225 receiving yards in 2019 (YIKES!).

New York Jets 2020 Season Preview
210 tackles over 61 career games

Defensive Backs

Without a doubt, I expect the Jets defense to continue to be a solid unit in 2020. However, cornerback is still a mild concern heading into 2020. The Jets did sign six year veteran Pierre Desir (209 career tackles, 5 career INT), in spite of coming off a down year. Desir graded out as the 73rd overall cornerback in Pro Football Focus’ 2019 rankings. In addition to Desir, 27-year old Brian Poole (250 career tackles, 5 career INT), signed out of Atlanta, should start in nickel packages. However, the bigger question is who is going to be starting opposite Desir. In this case, look for Blessuan Austin, Quincy Wilson, and Arthur Maulet to compete for a starting cornerback role during camp.

Ring the Bell

Beefing up the offensive line is a smart move for Darnold’s growth and should also allow Le’Veon Bell, who is coming off one of the “worst” statistical seasons of his career (789 rushing yards, 461 receiving yards, 4 TD ), to find creases to run through. Therefore, I expect a healthy Bell to rebound nicely in 2020.

New York Jets 2020 Season Preview
Should return to elite RB form in 2020

Wager Picks

First, I am a big buyer of Le’Veon Bell this year on DraftKings. The Jets rush offense ranked 31st in total rushing yards (1,257) and last in rushing yards per attempt (3.3) in 2019. The upgrade on the O-Line and Bell’s ability could propel him to produce numbers we were accustomed to seeing when he was in Pittsburgh (21.52 PPR fantasy pts/game over 62 games). Lastly, I expect the Jets to be an improved squad from 2019. However, the lack of WR depth is a concern and leads me to lean under on the team total of 7 wins most books are hanging.

Conclusion

While the Jets made some modest strides in the offseason, Gang Green still seems a few seasons away from contending in the division. The Dolphins and Bills have taken strides forward heading into 2020 and are subsequently further along toward claiming the AFC East title than New York.

What did you think about the Jets 2020 season preview? Do you agree? Leave us a comment to let us know!

Sixers Shake up the Lineup

Sixers Shake up lineup

Head coach Brett Brown has decided to give point guard duties to Shake Milton. Shake had been filling in for an injured Ben Simmons before the league shut down. During that time frame the second round 2018 draft pick showed some much needed scoring ability. In his last 9 games Milton averaged 17 points and 4 assists. On the season Shake is shooting 45 percent from three.

So what does Shake bring to the starting lineup? Shooting first and foremost. Shake can stroke it as a spot up shooter as well as off the dribble.

Sixers Shake up lineup

Another asset will be the length of Shake Milton on defense. Shake isn’t the quickest player, but he makes up for it with his 6’7 height and 7’0 wingspan. He can use that length to bother ball handlers and deflect passes.

Sixers Shake up lineup

It never hurts to have another facilitator on the court, as well. Another player with the ability to get others involved will allow Ben Simmons to be more aggressive. Also, defenses won’t be able to build a wall around Simmons and stagnate the offense.

Overall I don’t see a huge downside to this move. The Sixers are the epitome of position-less basketball with this lineup. Four different players can bring the ball up and initiate the offense. On defense they still have the same length that made it tough for the opposition to score. Most importantly it’s a 3-point shooting league and Shake Milton is a 3-point shooter. Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid stand to benefit from the space created by Milton’s shooting prowess. It remains to be seen how far the Sixers can go, but it’s guaranteed to be interesting going forward.

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