Top Stack – Atlanta Falcons vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Falcons and the Chargers face off in a duel between two 4-8 teams. Despite below .500 records, both teams still rank in the top ten in passing offense. The Chargers rank 4th with 273 passing YPG and the Falcons rank 6th with 271 passing YPG. Also, both defenses rank in the bottom ten in DraftKings Fantasy Points (DKFP) allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks. Smell that? That is the sweet smell of a perfect game stack cooking. Let’s delve into this game and more in our DraftKings NFL 2020 Week 14 Picks.
QB Matt Ryan ATL $5,700 and WR Calvin Ridley ATL $7,500
Matt Ryan has been as cold as Ebenezer Scrooge on Christmas Eve in Charles Dickens’ 1843 novella, A Christmas Carol. Over the last three weeks, Matty “ice cold” is averaging a pedestrian 12 DKFP/GM while only passing for 690 yards. That is 3 weeks with only 3 touchdowns and sadly 3 interceptions. On a positive note, his recent lackluster performances have kept his salary low on DraftKings. Let’s just say, I’d rather be a week early than a week late if Matt Ryan hits his ceiling game. The Chargers have allowed the seventh most DKFP/GM to opposing quarterbacks (20.6 DKFP/GM) and it’s not as if the Falcons shy away from throwing the football. In a non-conference game and nothing on the line for either team, I like Ryan’s chances of paying off his salary in week 14.
Matt Ryan has at least 35 passing attempts in all but one game this season, therefore give me the Prop Bet for Matt Ryan over 27.5 passing attempts.
Julio Jones (hamstring) has been ruled out, which gives a massive bump to fellow wide receiver Calvin Ridley. Jones’ absence leaves a 20% target share to be distributed between the Falcons receivers. Fortunately, Ridley, who already owns a 23% target share, should be the main beneficiary. On the season, Ridley has 56 receptions for 905 yards and seven touchdowns while averaging a productive 19.1 DKFP/GM. With an elite 14.8 average depth of target (aDOT) and without Julio Jones in the lineup, Ridley should soak up a ton of usage this week.
Bring it back with-
WR Keenan Allen LAC $7,700
I will keep this one short and sweet. Keenan Allen ranks in the top ten amongst wide receivers in target share (28%), receptions (90), receiving yards (923), yards after the catch (422) and touchdowns (7). The man is an absolute stud! This week he faces a Falcons defense that has allowed a whopping 43.06 DKFP/GM to opposing wide receivers, which is second worst in the NFL. Allen will be frighteningly over represented in my cash lineups in week 14.
Aaron Jones GB $7,600
Aaron Jones and the Packers are implied for a slate high 31.5 points this week against the Detroit Lions. Although the Packers appear to have a crowded backfield, with Jamal Williams and A.J. Dillon siphoning touches throughout the season, it has been Aaron Jones who has been the most productive. On the year, Jones ranks top ten amongst running backs in target share (14%), receiving yards (279), receptions (36), rushing market share (62.7%), rushing yards (754), good for 9 total TDs (7 rush, 2 rec). This week he faces a Lion’s defense that has totally embraced the “Season of Giving”. Detroit allows opposing backfields to average 32.8 DKFP/GM, which ranks worst in the NFL. Jones will be well represented in all formats for me in week 14.
Antonio Brown TB $5,500
This is a pure GPP play, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have so many playmakers on offense. Nonetheless, I am choosing to leverage the field with Antonio Brown this week against the Minnesota Vikings. In the four games he has played since signing with Tampa Bay, Brown has 20 receptions for 168 yards and no touchdowns. The matchup this week is there, as Minnesota has allowed the fourth most DKFP/GM to opposing wide receivers (42.7 DKFP/GM). Call it a gut feeling, but I think Bruce Arians and Tom Brady dialed up some more plays for AB during the bye week. I am calling it now; Antonio Brown gets off the schneid this week and finds the endzone.
Cole Kmet CHI $2,900
Cole Kmet is coming off the best performance of his young career. Kmet caught five of seven targets for 37 yards and a touchdown last week versus the Detroit Lions (14.7 DKFP). The Notre Dame product is certainly on the rise in Chicago, as he has seen nearly 80% of the Bears offensive snaps over the last three weeks. He has also out targeted fellow tight end Jimmy Graham 13-7 during that span. This week’s game against Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans currently has a 46-point total projection. Moreover, Houston’s defense has allowed the ninth most points scored per game (26.9). At under $3,000 on DraftKings, Cole Kmet will be a staple in my cash games.
Washington Football Team $2,800 and San Francisco 49ers $2,700
This game is currently sitting at 43.5 O/U, which is the second-lowest implied game total of the week. I will go out on a limb here, but I don’t see a lot of points scored in this contest. Nick Mullens and Alex Smith are certainly able to light up the scoreboard on any given day. However, I choose to accept that the NFL has a ton of variance and unpredictability. Sarcastic rant aside, I think either defense is a great play this week under $3,000 on DraftKings.
First off, Washington ranks T-3rd in the NFL in sacks with 36. When Mullens does drop back to pass, I like the Football Team’s chances of creating pressure, which leads to sacks and turnovers which is DFS gold! On the reverse, Washington’s offensive line has allowed the 4th most sacks and although the 49ers are banged up, they are a well-coached defense and are capable of taking advantage of an offense’s inefficiencies. Pick your poison here folks, either team is worth rostering and both will be represented in my GPP and Cash lineups.
Let us know what you think of our DraftKings NFL 2020 Week 14 Picks